Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.408166 2.884119 3.417479 4.057676 4.803358 5.642538 6.656433
2025-12-07 1.622037 2.194076 2.905370 3.847727 5.055397 6.542329 8.501688
2025-12-14 1.214731 1.818800 2.637098 3.811148 5.433821 7.575992 10.591822
2025-12-21 0.952169 1.557615 2.440595 3.795929 5.790851 8.579461 12.721266
2025-12-28 0.824132 1.454155 2.432213 4.020501 6.482600 10.087970 15.678289
2026-01-04 0.701885 1.329380 2.361634 4.126737 6.994280 11.371774 18.423383
2026-01-11 0.617848 1.248343 2.341347 4.298632 7.613057 12.860610 21.598853
2026-01-18 0.523970 1.128983 2.233489 4.302567 7.949643 13.929121 24.205259
2026-01-25 0.428095 0.984773 2.055482 4.153582 8.001356 14.529602 26.098571
2026-02-01 0.350292 0.859319 1.889457 3.997613 8.013045 15.050341 27.886873
2026-02-08 0.301732 0.785011 1.809191 3.988473 8.281665 16.024422 30.510393
2026-02-15 0.262667 0.723323 1.743695 3.996827 8.578806 17.067033 33.326962
2026-02-22 0.224333 0.655933 1.657253 3.955001 8.783106 17.976002 36.013568
2026-03-01 0.181560 0.567050 1.507696 3.757756 8.654228 18.253201 37.571583
2026-03-08 0.155956 0.516872 1.438141 3.724300 8.854582 19.170697 40.393835
2026-03-15 0.135285 0.475090 1.381116 3.710094 9.091643 20.176307 43.457511
2026-03-22 0.128447 0.472396 1.421670 3.930344 9.861055 22.307045 48.869196
2026-03-29 0.117058 0.452814 1.414886 4.034514 10.381167 23.968130 53.463111
2026-04-05 0.109343 0.443157 1.433105 4.202989 11.064174 26.018696 58.982053
2026-04-12 0.096605 0.413128 1.389425 4.206852 11.362765 27.277441 62.962096
2026-04-19 0.080982 0.368170 1.294213 4.060848 11.286509 27.719424 65.267679
2026-04-26 0.067585 0.327016 1.201911 3.908011 11.174279 28.068631 67.394543
2026-05-03 0.059640 0.304615 1.163271 3.899055 11.420000 29.235767 71.359193